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Bullish Case: The bullish scenario for SMPL hinges on strong demand for health snacks, improved integration of OWYN, and potential positive earnings surprises driving stocks toward historical highs, as indicated by past returns.



Bearish Case: The bearish outlook is fueled by rising competition in the healthy snack market, high implied volatility in puts, and concerns over insider selling, suggesting a possible downturn in stock performance.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth in healthy snack demand (60%).

2. Heightened competition leading to market share loss (25%).

3. Successful execution of OWYN integration helping boost sales (15%).



Trading Oracle: In light of current market sentiment, consider a bullish debit spread by buying SMPL 40.00 C and selling 45.00 C expiring in May 2025. This strategy taps into expected volatility and potential upside gains while managing risk effectively.


November 20, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMPL


SNAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNAP  Snapchat (0.78)


HLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HLF  Herbalife Nutrition (0.72)


FLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNG  Flex Lng (0.7)


RIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIO  Rio Tinto (0.7)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMPL


TEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEX  Terex (0.0)


IPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IPI  Intrepid Potash (-0.0)


HP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HP  Helmerich & Payne (0.0)


SKLZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKLZ  Skillz (0.01)


CGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CGC  Canopy Growth (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMPL


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.67)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.68)


J Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   J  Jacobs Engineering Group (-0.69)


EZPW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EZPW  EZCorp, Inc. (-0.72)


HOLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOLX  Hologic (-0.73)







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