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SMPL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: SMPL benefits from strong social sentiment and ongoing demand for health-focused products. Historical returns indicate potential for moderate gains.

Bearish Case: High competition in the health snacks sector poses risks. Elevated implied volatility suggests market apprehensions about SMPL's future prospects.

Potential Outcomes: 1. Market remains flat (40%).

2. Moderate growth driven by health trends (30%).

3. Increased competition impacts sales (20%).

4. Unexpected bullish catalyst (10%).

March 23, 2025

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMPL

ETSY Etsy (-0.0)

OVV Ovintiv (-0.0)

CCK Crown Holdings (-0.01)

CPS Cooper-Standard (-0.01)

SO Southern (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMPL

HCA HCA Healthcare (-0.52)

MPWR Monolithic Power System (-0.53)

JOE St. Joe (-0.54)

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RRR Red Rock Resorts (-0.63)

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