PTON Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Despite recent declines, restructuring with new leadership and cost reductions may drive a positive turnaround. Historical mean reversion and restructuring efforts could offer minor upside.


Bearish Case: PTON faces high uncertainty, declining demand, and profitability issues. High implied volatility suggests risks. Continued bearish trend is reinforced by negative AI price forecast and poor historical returns.


Potential Outcomes: 40% decline with further restructuring failure; 30% flat trading amidst cost-cutting; 20% increased volatility with restructuring impact; 10% unexpected events.


Trading Oracle: Trade a bearish credit spread expiring in ~28 days. Sell 3 $4.0 strike call options and buy 4 $5.0 strike call options. This leverages high volatility for optimal reward:risk (1:0.2), exploiting premium decay amidst anticipated further price decline. High probability of profit (76%), positive edge.


June 30, 2024


Peloton Interactive Forecast

PTON      Peloton Interactive











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PTON



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.88)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.73)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PTON



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.73)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PTON



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.88)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.73)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)





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