SPH Forecast


Bullish Case: SPH has significant institutional buying and strategic growth in renewable energy, positioning it well for future trends. Historical mean reversion suggests price stabilization or moderate increases.


Bearish Case: Current high implied volatilities and lower relative historical returns imply risk of market uncertainty. Regulatory pressures and increased put volume suggest potential downward price movements.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory impact causing a 10% decline (30%).

2. Successful renewable growth lifting stock 25% (15%).

3. Market saturation resulting in flat performance (55%).


Trading Oracle: Opt for a bull put spread. Sell the Nov 15 2024 17.5 Put, buy the Nov 15 2024 12.5 Put. Low to moderate volatility with stable market data shows moderate bullish sentiment. Focus is on capturing high probability of profit with limited downside risk. Positive edge, high reward:risk.


July 16, 2024


Suburban Propane Forecast

SPH      Suburban Propane











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPH



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.25)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPH



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.25)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPH



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.25)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)





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