SQ Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SQ's implied volatility is stabilizing, suggesting investor confidence. Recent rebound and flat term structure indicate potential upside. Historical data shows favorable returns post-downturn.


Bearish Case: High competition and market uncertainties risk SQ's growth, coupled with recent price decline and skepticism evident in elevated implied volatility levels.


Potential Outcomes: Moderate growth (45%), regulatory impacts (30%), technological advancements (15%), or competitive pressures (10%). Probabilities reflect current market dynamics and historical data.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish short volatility strategy with a credit spread expiring in ~45 days. Sell 2 $73 strike put options, buy 3 $60 strike put options. Market and Helium odds of profit: 64%. High reward:risk, leveraging moderate volatility with profit edge.


July 17, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SQ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.2)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.27)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SQ



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.2)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.2)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.27)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SQ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.2)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.27)





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