SRS Forecast


Bullish Case: The sustained low implied volatility environment suggests an opportunity for upward price movement, especially if market distress increases, driven by real estate sector weaknesses. Increasing call volumes indicate potential bullish sentiment among traders.


Bearish Case: Recent flat trading and significant historical odds of negative returns hint at a lack of momentum. Continued low investor confidence and potential economic headwinds could exacerbate downward trends in SRS prices.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Real estate sector distress (60%).

2. Sustained low implied volatility leading to gains (40%).

3. Major financial disruptions impact SRS (25%).

4. Consistent negative returns affecting prices (70%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying $14.0 call options and selling $17.0 calls, targeting upward movement driven by increased market uncertainty. This strategy enhances potential returns with a delta position benefiting from price appreciation. Timing outlook favors short-term opportunities with implied volatility trends suggesting significant price swings.


July 24, 2024


ProShares UltraShort Real Estate Forecast

SRS      ProShares UltraShort Real Estate











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SRS



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.4)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.22)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.0)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.63)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SRS



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.0)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.22)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.4)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.63)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SRS



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.4)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.22)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.0)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.63)





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