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SURG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: SURG presents a bullish case driven by potential revenue growth and favorable long-term return prospects, augmented by recent fintech partnerships and potential market recovery.

Bearish Case: High debt levels and mean-reverting price action combined with backwardation signal financial instability, casting doubt on SURG’s sustainability despite optimistic outlooks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Revenue growth boost (60%) due to fintech adoption.

2. Liquidity issues from debt (25%).

3. Price correction from volatility (15%).

4. Medium-term partnership success (50%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread using SURG 08/15/2025 2.50 C and 5.00 C options, focusing on high implied volatility. Targeting 6 months captures premium decay and potential downside, with current volatility favoring this setup for a profitable hedge.

February 15, 2025

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