Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: With institutional interest in SWI increasing and a positive legal outlook following SEC developments, prospects for a price recovery are favorable, particularly given recent product improvements.

Bearish Case: Recurring security concerns and high insider selling could heavily undermine investor confidence, risking a significant decline in SWI's stock price based on historical vulnerabilities.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of recovery to $15, supported by institutional backing.

2. 30% likelihood of price falling below $10 due to renewed scrutiny from ongoing security issues.

3. 20% chance of stagnation around $13 amid mixed signals.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread targeting a price increase towards $15 by mid-Winter. Using OTM calls (e.g., strikes near $15) to leverage anticipated upward movements while protecting against downside risks from ongoing volatility, given current high implied volatility can serve as a cushion against sudden price dips.

November 08, 2024