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TGI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The acquisition news could lead to growth as investors anticipate synergies and improved financials for Triumph Group.

Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility in puts and economic pressures suggest concerns over financial stability and future performance.

Potential Outcomes: Acquisition completion boosts TGI: 55%
Economic downturn impacts performance: 35%
Unforeseen external events cause sharp declines: 10%

May 27, 2025

Triumph Forecast

TGI Triumph

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TGI

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (0.9)

USAU U.S. Gold (0.87)

HOOD Robinhood Markets (0.86)

UNM Unum (0.84)

ORI Old Republic International (0.84)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TGI

EA Electronic Arts (-0.0)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (0.01)

QYLD Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call (0.01)

DV DoubleVerify (-0.01)

SCHD Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TGI

CAL Caleres (-0.82)

AEO American Eagle Outfitters (-0.84)

KHC Kraft Heinz (-0.84)

BCE BCE (-0.85)

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.87)

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