THD Forecast


Bullish Case: THD could experience a reversal, with key support at $54 and recent stabilization indicating potential bottoming out. Positive forecasts and low implied volatility further support a bounce-back.


Bearish Case: With THD down significantly from past peaks and elevated implied volatility, continuing negative sentiment is possible. Historical downtrend suggests further declines amid overall bearish outlook.


Potential Outcomes: Probable outcomes: 50% steady decline; 30% minor rebound; 10% strong recovery with new catalysts; 10% sharp decline on global market shocks. Historical trends and volatility suggest high bearish risk.


Trading Oracle: Bearish outlook. Execute debit put spreads (long volatility) for Sept 2024 $53/$50 strikes. Targeting profits from downside continuation while managing risk. High-reward strategy given probable decline.


June 30, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Thailand Forecast

THD      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Thailand











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with THD



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.86)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to THD



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.74)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.81)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.86)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against THD



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.86)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.74)





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