TM Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Toyota's focus on hybrid and hydrogen tech provides a defensive advantage amid market volatility. Strong brand reputation and strategic partnerships support resilience.




Bearish Case: Delayed EV adoption amid intense competition and regulatory pressures could erode market standing. Recent legal setbacks and mergers among competitors add uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes: Hybrid/hydrogen leadership: 45%. BEV market share loss: 30%. Economic downturn: 15%. Regulatory impact: 10%.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread: sell TM $175 calls, buy $185 calls. Leverage low IV and backwardated curve. Focus on a 1-2 month horizon as downside risks outweigh upside potential, targeting a 70% probability of profit.



February 11, 2025


Toyota Motor Forecast

TM        Toyota Motor











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