Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: With Toyota's strong green technology initiatives, expected recovery in EV production starting in 2026, and historical data suggesting potential upside, a bullish outlook is reasonable. Market sentiment may shift positively as recovery progresses.

Bearish Case: Continued delays in EV production and rising competition in the BEV market could erode TM's market share, while external economic pressures may further depress sales in the near term, presenting a significant bearish outlook.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1) Successful EV production ramp-up post-2026: 40%
• 2) Additional supply chain disruptions: 25%
• 3) Regulatory changes negatively impacting sales: 20%
• 4) Significant competitor gains in the EV sector: 15%

Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads given the low historical volatility, capturing opportunities around projected price increases. Buy TM 12/20/2024 $175 calls and sell $185 calls. This strategy leverages potential stock recovery while controlling risk with defined exit points.

December 01, 2024