TM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: TM shows strong sales growth in electrified vehicles and solid earnings prospects, supported by recent positive market metrics. Continued focus on hybrid models can enhance its market positioning, potentially driving stock prices up.


Bearish Case: Heightened competition in the EV sector and recent dips in TM's stock price raise concerns about market share loss. Legal challenges and potential production disruptions may further pressure the stock downwards, worsening sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Increased EV adoption - 40% chance.

2) Supply chain disruptions continue - 25% chance.

3) Regulatory challenges worsen - 20% chance.

4) Successful new model launches - 15% chance.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread: Buy the TM 08/16/2024 $200 call and sell the $210 call. This strategy leverages favorable implied volatility while betting on upward price movement with a defined risk profile, offering strong potential returns as momentum builds.


July 25, 2024


Toyota Motor Forecast

TM      Toyota Motor











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.7)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.7)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.7)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)





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