Bullish Case: A bullish outlook emerges if upcoming economic indicators show unexpected improvements, which could elevate demand for TMV as a bearish treasury strategy, potentially driving implied volatility higher and leading to significant price upticks.

Bearish Case: The bearish scenario is bolstered by high implied volatility indications, with market conditions likely to remain unfavorable. Continued economic pressures and persistent low demand for treasuries could stabilize or push TMV prices lower, leading to more selling pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of TMV declining below $30 due to negative economic data.

2. 30% chance of stability around $35, attracting buyers.

3. 20% chance of a rally to $42 amid favorable fiscal shifts.

4. 10% chance of a substantial price surge above $45 if market volatility spikes unexpectedly.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bearish short volatility position: sell the $39.00 strike call and buy the $41.00 call options, targeting a potential 28% return with a 67% probability of profit. This aligns with current bearish sentiment and high implied volatility in options trading, offering a solid risk/reward ratio.

November 15, 2024