Bullish Case: TMV's recent 24.4% riseHelium and lower relative volatility in SPY suggests potential for continued upward momentum as bond market pressures may recede, supporting bullish strategies.

Bearish Case: The historical price return surface indicates prevailing negative sentimentHelium. High implied volatility and bearish options volumeHelium suggest continued pressure on TMV.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance TMV remains range-bound around

2. 25% chance of breakout due to favorable bond yield changesseekingalpha.com 

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TMV: A Levered Play Against Treasuries

Article Bias: The article discusses the current state of long-duration Treasuries and the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes, while promoting The Lead-Lag Report as a tool for investment strategy without clearly endorsing or criticizing specific financial positions, suggesting a neutral yet promotional content with risk disclaimers.

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3. 15% probability of bearish decline if negative economic data emergesHelium.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread: sell 1 $41.25 call and buy 1 $42.5 call expiring in 38 days. Rides high short volatility efficiency, with a robust 74% probability of profit. This strategy aligns with continued high implied volatility and negative historical returns.

January 16, 2025