TSEM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: TSEM's strategic partnerships, particularly with Intel, and ongoing expansion in Asia present a strong growth narrative, potentially supported by favorable market conditions that favor analog semiconductor demand.


Bearish Case: Lingering uncertainty from Intel's failed acquisition, coupled with a flat recent price performance and high implied volatility, raises concerns over TSEM's ability to recover its market position effectively.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of stabilization and gradual recovery via Asian market growth.

2. 25% chance of continued mean reversion leading to price stagnation.

3. 15% chance of additional downturn due to persistent investor uncertainty.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy TSEM 44.00 C, sell TSEM 46.00 C, aiming for upside targeting mid-November. With high implied volatility and favorable risk/reward, this strategy enhances profit potential while managing exposure.


July 25, 2024


Tower Semiconductor Forecast

TSEM      Tower Semiconductor











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Assets that tend to move strongly with TSEM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.82)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.44)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TSEM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.44)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.51)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.82)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TSEM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.82)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.44)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.51)





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