TWM Forecast


Bullish Case: TWM bullish outlook driven by 92% higher bullish risk, increased call volume, implying stronger upside potential in the near term.


Bearish Case: TWM historical trend shows significant negative returns; historical data aligns with continuous depreciation, making a sustained rebound improbable.


Potential Outcomes: Outcomes include continued downside (-60%, 70%), flat performance (20%, 25%), modest recovery (+15%, 5%). The bearish trend, historical data, and recent price action point to high probability of further decline.


Trading Oracle: Trade helium short volatility credit spreads given high implied volatilities. Short Aug-2024 $11.00 puts, buy Aug-2024 $10.00 puts. Positions for downside risk with limited near-term time frame. High reward:risk, sustainable probability-of-profit.


June 30, 2024


ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 Forecast

TWM      ProShares UltraShort Russell2000











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TWM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.44)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TWM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.44)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.54)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.87)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TWM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.44)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.87)





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