USAP Forecast


Bullish Case: With strong aerospace demand forecasts driving revenue, USAP's higher margins and cash flows indicate potential growth. Positive AI price forecasts support a bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: High short-term volatility and a recent price decline (-16.5% in a month) combined with labor negotiations may lead to further downward pressure, reflecting market skepticism.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price Increase (40%): Strong aerospace demand sustains momentum.

2. Price Stability (30%): Conformance to historical price norms.

3. Price Decline (30%): Labor disputes and volatility trigger sell-off.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread with USAP's $30 call and $40 call for Jan 2025. Given high implied volatility and positive price momentum, this strategy offers a favorable risk-reward profile.


July 26, 2024


Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Forecast

USAP      Universal Stainless & Alloy Products











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USAP



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USAP



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USAP



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)





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