USMC Forecast


Bullish Case: USMC may benefit from upcoming earnings reports and strong market fundamentals. Historical data suggests upward price momentum, with a high likelihood of positive returns over the next year, making a compelling case for a long position.


Bearish Case: Potential macroeconomic instability and geopolitical tensions could derail sentiment. Elevated implied volatility indicates increased uncertainty, raising the chances of downward price movement in the short-term, making a bearish outlook plausible.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Sustained economic recovery leads to a 15% price increase in 12 months (30% probability).

2) Short-term volatility results in a 5% decline in 3 months (50% probability).

3) Major geopolitical disruptions cause a 10% drop in 6 months (20% probability).


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July 25, 2024


Principal Exchange-Traded Funds - Principal U.S. Mega-Cap Forecast

USMC      Principal Exchange-Traded Funds - Principal U.S. Mega-Cap











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USMC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USMC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USMC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)





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