VALE Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: High call option volume suggests bullish sentiment. Mean reversion indicates potential price recovery.




Bearish Case: Backwardation and significant implied volatility imply potential near-term downside risk.




Potential Outcomes: Stable price due to mean reversion (50%), drop from backwardation (30%), volatility spikes offering trading opportunities (20%).



March 16, 2025


Vale Forecast

VALE        Vale











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VALE



LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.94)


HUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUN  Huntsman (0.93)


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (0.92)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.91)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VALE



CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (-0.01)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.01)


LHX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LHX  L3Harris (0.01)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (-0.01)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VALE



CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (-0.86)


SAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAP  Sap SE (-0.87)


TGTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGTX  TG Therapeutics (-0.87)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.88)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (-0.89)









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