BHP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BHP's investments in copper and nickel projects align with growing demand for EVs and infrastructure. Despite recent volatility, a rebound in commodity prices could propel BHP stock upwards, especially as institutional interest increases.


Bearish Case: BHP faces downward pressure from weak iron ore demand and supply chain challenges, particularly in China. With recent production guidance suggesting flat growth, investors may anticipate ongoing bearish trends in the short to medium term.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance of price recovery to $60 (+10%) as demand for copper rises;

2) 40% chance of maintaining $54-$56 range;

3) 30% chance of decline to $50 (-8%) amid continued market uncertainty.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying $56 calls expiring in November and selling $60 calls, optimizing for a rebound. Focus on short-term volatility, maintaining a low-risk profile while capturing upside potential based on increasing copper demand.


July 25, 2024


BHP Group Limited Forecast

BHP      BHP Group Limited











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Uncorrelated Assets

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ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.18)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.49)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BHP



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.49)





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