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BHP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: BHP's strategic focus on copper and nickel positions it well for growth in the renewable energy space. The current mean-reverting historical price surface and low implied volatilities suggest potential for positive price movement, especially with recent optimism in China recovery.



Bearish Case: Legal challenges, declining iron ore demand, and unfavorable market conditions could pressure BHP prices downward. Elevated short-term volatilities and social media concerns about ESG compliance reinforce bearish outlook. Current market uncertainties further heighten risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of slight recovery to $54 driven by uptick in copper demand.

2) 35% chance of a decline to $48 amid legal pressures.

3) 25% chance of staying within $50-$52 reflecting market stability.



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March 18, 2025


BHP Group Limited Forecast

BHP        BHP Group Limited

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TAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAN  Invesco Solar (0.85)


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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BHP


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (-0.0)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.0)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.01)


DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (0.02)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BHP


CLBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLBT  Cellebrite DI (-0.76)


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (-0.77)


CHWY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHWY  Chewy (-0.77)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.77)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.78)







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