VEA Forecast


Bullish Case: Institutional inflows and stable historical returns indicate potential for moderate price growth. Low implied volatility at current price levels supports bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: The high implied volatility at lower strikes hints at potential downside risk due to emerging market uncertainties and possible economic downturns.


Potential Outcomes: 45% chance price increases 2-3% due to strong inflows, 35% chance of price stagnation driven by moderating market sentiment, 20% chance of price drop 1-2% from economic headwinds.


Trading Oracle: Execute short credit spreads (short volatility) at lower strikes, like 48/49 Puts expiring in 30 days. Time outlook: 1 month. Expect volatility reversion favoring short volatility, with limited downside and stable support around $50-$51.


July 18, 2024


Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Forecast

VEA      Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VEA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VEA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VEA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)





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