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VIR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: VIR's pivot to oncology and promising hepatitis D data may catalyze price appreciation. Anticipation of oncology data raises potential for investor excitement.

Bearish Case: Market skepticism and insider selling trends suggest potential downside. High volatility and helium-market volatility gaps indicate heightened risk of negative price action.

Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of positive trial results boosting stock; 40% chance of insider selling suppressing price; 30% neutral/stagnant due to ongoing uncertainty.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread using short $12.5 calls and long $15.0 calls, expiring in ~65 days. Elevated implied volatility (~68-74%) offers high reward:risk with 77% odds of profit. Watch for trial updates closely.

January 16, 2025

Vir Biotechnology Forecast

VIR Vir Biotechnology

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VIR

NTLA Intellia Therapeutics (0.81)

INDI Indie Semiconductor (0.76)

TAN Invesco Solar (0.76)

LESL Leslies (0.73)

CRSR Corsair Gaming (0.72)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VIR

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.0)

WPC W. P. Carey (0.0)

OLED Universal Display (-0.01)

VTRS Viatris (-0.02)

SKYT SkyWater Technology (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VIR

NOW ServiceNow (-0.66)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (-0.66)

BSX Boston Scientific (-0.66)

KGC Kinross Gold (-0.67)

GLD SPDR Gold Shares (-0.7)

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