VIR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: VIR's strategic pivot to oncology, combined with promising hepatitis treatments, may unlock significant value if trial results impress or FDA approvals occur. This aligns with high implied volatility, suggesting investor interest.




Bearish Case: Prolonged insider selling and market skepticism, coupled with historical flat returns, suggest continued pressure on VIR. Elevated volatility indicates potential for sharp downside if trials disappoint.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Success in oncology and hepatitis trials boosts stock by 40% (35%).
  • Poor trial results lead to 25% decline (40%).
  • Stagnation with mixed results (25%).




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread: sell Apr 2025 $12.5 calls, buy $15.0 calls. With volatility high, leverage negative sentiment. Close if a surprise approval occurs, otherwise capture profit on decline in volatility. 60-day outlook.



February 19, 2025


Vir Biotechnology Forecast

VIR        Vir Biotechnology











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Anticorrelated Assets

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SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.61)


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