XPOF Forecast


Bullish Case: Xponential Fitness's strong growth potential—including studio openings and recent leadership change—coupled with high implied volatility suggests significant upside. Positive market sentiment, with 35% more call options traded, bolsters the bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: Ongoing federal investigations and potential class-action lawsuits present significant downside risks. Elevated implied volatility reflects market uncertainty, and historical mean-reverting price action suggests limited near-term upside potential.


Potential Outcomes: 45% - New leadership drives growth and stock price increases. 35% - Ongoing legal issues result in declines. 20% - Macroeconomic factors cause broader market impacts, affecting XPOF.


Trading Oracle: Trade debit spreads (Helium Long Volatility) on XPOF targeting November/December expirations. Focus on $17.50-$22.50 strike range, leveraging potential upside on positive news and sustained high implied volatility. This offers a favorable reward:risk and high probability-of-profit.


July 16, 2024


Xponential Fitness Forecast

XPOF      Xponential Fitness











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Assets that tend to move strongly with XPOF



BKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BKR  Baker Hughes (0.77)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (0.74)


IMAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMAX  Imax (0.69)


OIH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OIH  VanEck Vectors Oil Services (0.69)


RCM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCM  R1 RCM (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XPOF



SLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLAB  Silicon Laboratories (0.0)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (-0.0)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.0)


CGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CGC  Canopy Growth (-0.0)


XLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLU  Utilities Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XPOF



SIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIG  Signet Jewelers (-0.69)


UEC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UEC  Uranium Energy (-0.7)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (-0.7)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNC  Centene (-0.72)


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (-0.73)





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