CBOE Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Cboe's continued product innovation, including launching the new U.S. Treasury Market Volatility Index (VIXTLT), aligns with increased investor interest and broadens market offerings, potentially boosting trading volumes.


Bearish Case: Low option trading volumes and high implied volatility signal market stagnation concerns. Insider sales compound uncertainty, potentially triggering investor caution and reducing stock price.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Innovation boosts volumes - 60%.

2. Low trading activity impacts stock negatively - 40%.

3. Regulatory changes detract from growth - 20%. Potential outcomes derived from historical return trends and implied volatility.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish short volatility strategy via a credit spread. Sell $172.5 strike calls and buy $180.0 strike calls expiring in ~21 days. This offers a positive edge with estimated profitability of 82%, capitalizing on current volatility surface. High reward:risk ratio.


June 30, 2024


Cboe Global Markets Forecast

CBOE      Cboe Global Markets











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CBOE



PFGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PFGC  Performance Food (0.82)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (0.73)


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (0.7)


HD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HD  Home Depot (0.66)


H Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   H  Hyatt Hotels (0.61)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CBOE



LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTPZ  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (-0.02)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (-0.02)


VOYA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOYA  Voya Financial (0.09)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.09)


INSP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSP  Inspire Medical Systems (-0.11)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CBOE



PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.47)


GUSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GUSH  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.5)


BDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BDX  Becton, Dickinson And Company (-0.54)


AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (-0.59)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.68)





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