VIV Forecast


Bullish Case: VIV shows a historical mean-reverting tendency and recent stabilization, supported by potential positive regulatory changes in Brazil. Strong investments in technology could enhance growth, making the stock appealing for long-term holders.


Bearish Case: VIV is facing declining revenues and intense competition. High operational complexity in Brazil's telecom sector poses significant risks, while ongoing market volatility and potential political instability could further suppress stock performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued tech investment (30%);

2. Local economic decline (45%);

3. Global market recovery (20%);

4. Increased regulatory support (15%);

5. Continued political instability (50%). These probabilities reflect the intertwined relationship between market conditions and VIV's operational challenges.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish long call spread strategy: Buy the 08/16/2024 10.00C and sell the 08/16/2024 12.50C. This leverages potential upside while limiting risk, targeting a price increase from current levels with a favorable risk/reward ratio.


July 24, 2024


Telefonica Brasil S.A., - ADR (Representing Ord) Forecast

VIV      Telefonica Brasil S.A., - ADR (Representing Ord)











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VIV



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.13)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.14)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.48)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VIV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.13)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.48)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VIV



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.13)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.14)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.48)





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