VLO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Valero's solid financials, strong institutional investment, and ongoing renewable energy expansion provide compelling reasons for bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Declining refining margins, reduced earnings estimates, and high operational costs signal potential downside for Valero Energy's stock.


Potential Outcomes: 45% neutral trend given mean reversion; 35% bullish on strong fundamentals; 20% bearish from cost pressures.


Trading Oracle: Engage in bull put credit spreads focusing on short-term (1-2 month) expirations like the $150-$160 range. This benefits from mean reversion, strong fundamentals, and relatively lower implied volatility, offering a high probability of profit and positive edge.


July 16, 2024


Valero Energy Forecast

VLO      Valero Energy











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VLO



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.82)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VLO



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.82)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)





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