VTOL Forecast


Bullish Case: Bristow's potential for stability due to strong long-term contracts in government services, coupled with increased offshore activity, suggests rising demand for VTOL services, supporting price growth.


Bearish Case: Ongoing insider selling raises concerns about management confidence in future performance, potentially leading to further sell-offs and bearish sentiment in the market.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased demand due to new contracts (40%);

2. Insider selling pressures stock price (30%);

3. Stable price due to market adjustment (30%).


Trading Oracle: Given the current bearish sentiment and elevated implied volatility, consider establishing short-term credit spreads on VTOL options to capitalize on high premiums while monitoring for any signs of reversal to pivot to bullish strategies later.


July 25, 2024


Bristow Forecast

VTOL      Bristow











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VTOL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.31)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.27)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VTOL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.27)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.31)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VTOL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.31)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.27)





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