WAL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: WAL has shown a strong upward trend, with a 19.3% rise in the past month. Implied volatility suggests positive movement, and historical returns indicate potential for substantial gains.


Bearish Case: Significant implied volatility and high recent trading volume in put options suggest considerable downside risk. Historical returns show likelihood for negative outcomes during volatile periods.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued upward price trend (45%).

2) Near-term correction due to volatility (35%).

3) Longer-term stagnation (20%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish long volatility position, buying near-term $78.0 call options and selling $80.0 call options expiring in ~9 days. Limited risk, leveraging positive short-term sentiment and potential for rapid gains; favorable edge, high ROI potential.


July 18, 2024


Western Alliance Bancorp Forecast

WAL      Western Alliance Bancorp











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WAL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.73)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.34)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WAL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.34)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.6)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.73)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WAL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.73)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.34)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.6)





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