WB Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Weibo's bullish sentiment is underpinned by relative undervaluation (low price to book ratio) and potential speculative spikes in implied volatility as evidenced from the volatility surfaces.


Bearish Case: Continued regulatory tightening in China, poor historical returns, and hints from implied volatility trends suggest prolonged high-risk environment for WB.


Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of continued decline/regulatory impact. 25% chance of modest recovery if financials improve. 15% chance WB remains stagnant amid regulatory volatility.


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish debit spreads targeting short to medium-term horizons (60-90 days). Buy $8.00 Puts, sell $6.70 Puts to profit from expected decline and high implied volatility. This approach leverages high historical and projected volatility, optimizing potential returns.


July 16, 2024


Weibo Forecast

WB      Weibo











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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WB



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TMUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMUS  T-Mobile US (-0.86)


GEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEO  Geo Group (-0.86)


SPOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPOT  Spotify Technology (-0.88)





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