WRB Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: WRB historically has shown strong mean reversion and the current price is significantly lower than historical highs, indicating potential for upward correction. Upcoming earnings could provide positive surprises.


Bearish Case: WRB shows a -1.72% bearish forecast and has recently experienced significant declines with implied volatility surpassing market expectations, suggesting continued negative price action.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Bullish rebound (35% chance) driven by earnings surprise.

2. Continued bearish trend (40% chance) due to negative recent performance and volatility.

3. Sideways movement (25% chance) as market assesses recent declines.


Trading Oracle: Trade a bearish debit spread: buy $55 strike put and sell $50 strike put expiring in ~30 days. Leverage WRB's current negative outlook and high implied volatility for positive edge and high reward:risk.


July 17, 2024


W.R. Berkley Forecast

WRB      W.R. Berkley











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WRB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.17)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WRB



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.17)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WRB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.17)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)





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