WSM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: WSM exhibits significant long-term growth with consistent historical returns. Term structure shows favorable implied volatility, indicating market confidence.


Bearish Case: High debt costs, flat recent price action, and a bearish AI forecast suggest potential downside risks, corroborated by elevated term structure volatility.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of continued growth fueled by strong fundamentals and recent stock split.

2. 30% chance of stagnation due to mixed analyst ratings and sector conditions.

3. 20% chance of decline driven by bearish forecast and rising debt costs.


Trading Oracle: Helium short volatility credit spreads are optimal now. Sell $150 puts and buy $140 puts expiring in 45 days to leverage high volatility and mitigate downside risk. This strategy capitalizes on strong bullish risk yet acknowledges potential near-term bearish pressures.


July 17, 2024


Williams-Sonoma Forecast

WSM      Williams-Sonoma











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WSM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.79)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WSM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.79)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WSM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.79)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)





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