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XOM Forecast


Price Forecast:


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



Bullish Case: XOM's strong historical returns and solid financials, coupled with a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, support a bullish scenario. The recent oil price rallies, driven by geopolitical tensions, could further enhance profitability.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility suggests market apprehension around XOM's future, including potential market corrections and insider trading concerns, indicating a bearish outlook. Regulatory pressures may also impact future profitability negatively.



Potential Outcomes:
  • High oil prices persist leading to increased earnings (40% chance).
  • Regulatory scrutiny dampens growth (30% chance).
  • Continued insider selling affects investor confidence (20% chance).
  • Geopolitical tensions escalate oil prices dramatically (10% chance).



Trading Oracle: Given the bullish sentiment, consider a long call debit spread, buying XOM 115C and selling XOM 120C, targeting April 2025 expirations. This strategy leverages upward price movement while managing risk, supported by current market trends in volatility.


December 11, 2024


Exxon Mobil Forecast

XOM        Exxon Mobil

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SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (0.82)


SCCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCCO  Southern Copper (0.7)


PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (0.62)


MIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MIR  Mirion Technologies Inc. (0.61)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.61)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XOM


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.0)


TEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEX  Terex (0.01)


SBAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBAC  SBA Communications (-0.01)


BHF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHF  Brighthouse Financial (-0.02)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XOM


ARKG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKG  ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (-0.54)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.56)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.57)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.58)


ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (-0.58)







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