Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Exxon Mobil's focus on lithium and carbon capture alongside high oil prices may catalyze growth. A stable demand for energy and strategic acquisitions enhance profitability, positioning XOM favorably for 2025.

Bearish Case: Increased regulatory scrutiny and transitional risks in energy demand could weaken Exxon’s stock. High insider selling and a volatile oil market raise concerns about long-term stability, creating significant downside risks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong oil prices persist (40%);

2. Successful lithium extraction ventures (30%);

3. Regulatory scrutiny leads to stock decline (20%);

4. Market correction due to overvaluation (10%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a long call debit spread by buying 125C and selling 130C targeting March 2025 expirations. This strategy leverages upward volatility anticipation while managing risk effectively; focus on the bullish market sentiment and potential price recovery.

November 12, 2024