XOM Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Exxon's strong cash flows and strategic expansions into the Permian Basin and Guyana position it for growth, supported by ongoing investment in sustainable energy .




Bearish Case: XOM faces downside from regulatory scrutiny, volatile oil prices, and skepticism about its environmental initiatives, amplifying perceived transition risks .




Potential Outcomes: 40% ongoing strong cash flows and earnings; 30% strategic expansions propel growth; 20% environmental scrutiny impacts stock; 10% market corrections due to uncertainty.




Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish long call debit spread, targeting strikes at $115 and $120 expiring in April 2025. This strategy capitalizes on favorable volatility trends and potential market recovery, offering high reward-to-risk while mitigating downside exposures.



January 16, 2025


Exxon Mobil Forecast

XOM        Exxon Mobil











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