XOM Forecast


Bullish Case: Exxon Mobil's strong dividend yield, strategic acquisitions, and substantial oil production capacity expansion, as evidenced by steady historical returns, support a bullish stance.


Bearish Case: Overpricing risks, insider selling, and regulatory scrutiny are significant concerns, highlighted by high implied volatility and recent Q2 profit warnings.


Potential Outcomes: 60% increase in production capacity boosts stock, 30% market correction, 10% decline due to insider trading.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish short-volatility strategy using credit spreads, selling near-term at-the-money puts. Target the 30-45 day horizon to leverage stabilized historical returns and a flat term structure. Invest in August 2024 contracts to capture premium.


July 20, 2024


Exxon Mobil Forecast

XOM      Exxon Mobil











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XOM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.96)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XOM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.96)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XOM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.96)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)





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