XP Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Potential positive developments in tech partnerships could drive XP upwards, boosted by current option sentiment and speculative optimism in social media Helium.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and significant put volume suggest market skepticism, compounded by economic headwinds and past price declines HeliumHelium.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Steady growth if tech partnerships succeed (40%)
  • Stagnation due to economic factors (30%)
  • Further decline from market skepticism (30%)




Trading Oracle: Leverage a near-term credit spread to capitalize on high volatility. Consider selling the XP 10.00 P while buying the XP 9.00 P for February expiration. This strategy benefits from significant implied volatility and bearish sentiment, offering favorable risk-reward dynamics.



January 22, 2025


XP Forecast

XP        XP











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