Z Forecast


Bullish Case: Z's 1% down payment initiative could boost sales and revenue by attracting more first-time buyers. Recent improvements in regional markets also support potential growth, coinciding with expected decreases in mortgage rates.


Bearish Case: Persistently high mortgage rates are capturing demand, potentially stalling Zillow's recovery and prompting buyers to hesitate. Additionally, increasing competition and high housing prices could threaten revenue growth.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of increased revenues from the down payment program attracting first-time buyers.

2. 30% chance of sustained low housing demand due to high mortgage rates.

3. 10% chance of increased negative equity if prices fall.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying Z call options (e.g., July 26, 2024, $52.00) and selling higher strikes (e.g., $54.00) targeting short-term upside. Given current market conditions and volatility projections, this approach maintains a favorable reward-to-risk ratio.


July 24, 2024


Zillow Forecast

Z      Zillow











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with Z



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.19)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.05)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to Z



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.05)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.19)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.46)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against Z



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.19)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.05)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)





Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with Z


 Ask any question about Z!