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Bullish Case: TBT has risen 55% in two years with the Helium AI forecasting further 0.6% upside. Mean reversion suggests potential for price stabilization and upside.


Bearish Case: Decline in TBT price by 3.3% in past week juxtaposed with high implied volatility signals market anticipation of downward price pressure.


Potential Outcomes:

1) TBT stabilizes or grows modestly by 0.6% following AI forecast.

2) Further declines on continued mean reversion or macroeconomic shifts.


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March 28, 2024


PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea Forecast

TBT        PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBT



TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TBF]  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (1.0)


CNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CNX]  CNX Resources (0.82)


USL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [USL]  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States 12 Month Oil (0.79)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RRC]  Range Resources (0.79)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UCO]  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.79)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to TBT



JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JOBY]  Joby Aviation (0.0)


CRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CRM]  Salesforce.Com (0.0)


THO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [THO]  Thor Industries (0.0)


SUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SUM]  Summit Materials (0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CG]  Carlyle (0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT



SSTK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SSTK]  Shutterstock (-0.87)


LW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [LW]  Lamb Weston (-0.89)


TGTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TGTX]  TG Therapeutics (-0.91)


BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BND]  Vanguard Total Bond Market (-0.91)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [EDV]  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (-0.96)





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