MRNA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MRNA's potential in mRNA therapies beyond COVID-19, including cancer and flu, remains promising, supported by high investor interest and ongoing R&D funding.




Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges, declining vaccine demand, and regulatory uncertainties pose significant risks, threatening financial stability and investor confidence.




Potential Outcomes:
1. Vaccine demand stabilizes at low levels (70%).

2. New vaccine success spurs growth (50%).

3. Legal losses impact reputation (30%).



May 10, 2025


Moderna Forecast

MRNA        Moderna











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MRNA



ASH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASH  Ashland (0.96)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (0.95)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (0.95)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.95)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MRNA



IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (-0.0)


HRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRI  Herc (-0.01)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.01)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.01)


TTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTI  Tetra Technologies (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MRNA



JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (-0.85)


BK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BK  Bank Of New York Mellon (-0.87)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.87)


LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (-0.89)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.92)









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