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USO Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: USO's backwardation indicates bullish sentiment, with potential supply constraints. Elevated call volumes suggest market optimism for price recovery.



Bearish Case: Persistent high volatility and a bearish trend in recent returns highlight market caution. Elevated put volumes suggest downside risk amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable trading range (50%) due to geopolitical tensions and stable IV.
  • Price rebound (30%) driven by supply constraints.
  • Further decline (20%) as economic pressures persist.


May 08, 2025


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO        United States Commodity Funds

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO


UGA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UGA  United States Commodity Funds (0.92)


FCG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCG  First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Natural Gas (0.75)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.71)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (0.58)


QYLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QYLD  Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call (0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.0)


MAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAC  Macerich (0.0)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.0)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.0)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO


POST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   POST  Post (-0.55)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.56)


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (-0.59)


UVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVE  Universal Insurance (-0.64)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.99)







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