UGA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: UGA has shown robust growth over the past years, surging 121.5% from five years ago. Continual growth paired with a current bullish sentiment (28% more bullish risk) makes a compelling case for a continuance of this upward trajectory.


Bearish Case: Recent flat price action, paired with high implied volatility, suggests potential over-valuation and market uncertainty. With little change just over the past month and week, the threat of a price correction or stagnation looms.


Potential Outcomes:

1. UGA maintains its upward trend (Probability 60%).

2. Volatility spikes leading to sharp price corrections (Probability 30%).

3. Consolidation around the current price range from market equilibrium (Probability 10%).


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April 25, 2024


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

UGA        United States Commodity Funds
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











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Assets that tend to move strongly with UGA



WHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WHD  Cactus (0.84)


ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.83)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.81)


CVI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVI  CVR Energy (0.8)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.78)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to UGA



CGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CGC  Canopy Growth (0.0)


IBRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IBRX  ImmunityBio (-0.0)


BYRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYRN  Byrna (-0.0)


UGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UGL  ProShares Ultra Gold (-0.0)


ZD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZD  Ziff Davis (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against UGA



NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (-0.57)


VRSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRSN  Verisign (-0.57)


FIGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIGS  Figs (-0.58)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.63)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.73)


UGA News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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