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AA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AA's strategic shift towards green initiatives and stronger aerospace sector demand could drive growth. The implied volatility surfaces indicate potential upward swings, enhancing the upside.

Bearish Case: Alcoa faces risks from ongoing labor disputes and environmental issues. The increase in put options volume suggests bearish sentiment, with high market uncertainty spurring potential declines.

Potential Outcomes: Expected aerospace growth to increase revenues (65%), potential labor disputes affecting operations (50%), and unresolved environmental issues leading to financial penalties (35%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by purchasing 40.00 strike calls and selling 42.00 calls expiring April 18. High implied volatility provides an advantageous edge. Target the aerospace demand increase and favorable historical trends, ensuring risk management through defined positions.

January 26, 2025

Alcoa Forecast

AA Alcoa

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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