AA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Growing aerospace demand and favorable market conditions suggest potential revenue growth. High call volumes display investor optimism.




Bearish Case: Ongoing labor and environmental issues may hinder operational stability, with high implied volatility indicating market uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes: Aerospace growth boosts revenues (70%). Labor disputes disrupt operations (50%). Environmental penalties impact finances (40%).




Trading Oracle: Engage in bullish debit spreads. Buy $35 calls, sell $37 calls expiring in April. This strategy leverages favorable implied volatility and potential aerospace sector gains for a positive edge and high reward potential.



February 23, 2025


Alcoa Forecast

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