VAC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Recent insider buying signals strong confidence in Marriott Vacations' long-term growth potential, and with historical returns suggesting a rebound possibility, there’s basis for optimism. The implied volatility curve indicates softened future volatility, suggesting reduced risk for upward momentum.


Bearish Case: Despite the optimistic outlook, potential macroeconomic headwinds and sustained market skepticism could hinder recovery. Analyst forecasts show VAC trading significantly below its historical highs, indicating bearish sentiment and potential for further declines amid broader market volatility.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 50% chance of rally toward $100 due to insider confidence.

2) 30% possibility of sideways movement amid market volatility.

3) 20% risk of further decline below $80 if economic conditions worsen.


Trading Oracle: Implement bullish call debit spreads with a focus on short-dated calls targeting the $90 strike for September 2024. This strategy aligns with moderately bullish sentiment from insiders while managing risk due to current implied volatility levels and potential upside from positive earnings. Monitor market conditions closely.


July 25, 2024


Marriott Vacations Worldwide Forecast

VAC      Marriott Vacations Worldwide











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VAC



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LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.06)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VAC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.06)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.27)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VAC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.06)





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