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AI ACRE Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: The potential for ACRE to leverage rising interest rates and benefit from strategic investments could drive significant price recovery, supported by institutional interest and a history of strong returns in a 1-2 year horizon.

Bearish Case: Continued economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and industry-wide challenges could suppress ACRE's recovery, pushing it toward further declines or stabilization at lower price points given the historical volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of ACRE stabilizing at $7.50 due to adjusted market sentiment.

2) 30% chance of recovery above $8.00 fueled by strategic initiatives.

3) 30% chance of dips towards $6.00 driven by macroeconomic pressures.

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August 29, 2024

Ares Commercial Real Estate Forecast

ACRE Ares Commercial Real Estate

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ACRE

PACB Pacific Biosciences of California (0.92)

LEG Leggett & Platt (0.9)

FUBO fuboTV (0.9)

PTON Peloton Interactive (0.9)

BXMT Blackstone Mortgage (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACRE

TTC Toro (0.0)

MUB BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares National Muni Bond (-0.0)

BMO Bank of Montreal (-0.0)

ALHC Alignment Healthcare (-0.0)

SNAP Snapchat (0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACRE

RAIL FreightCar America (-0.83)

FRO Frontline (-0.83)

IMO Imperial Oil (-0.83)

SE Sea (-0.87)

ACGL Arch (-0.89)

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