ACRE Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: With improving financial metrics and institutional interest, ACRE could recover, supported by effective loan management and rising interest rate benefits.




Bearish Case: Ongoing economic uncertainties and high borrowing costs can further suppress ACRE’s performance, risking continued pressure on yield and valuations.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of stabilization at $7.50 as market sentiment improves.
  • 30% chance of recovery to above $8.00 driven by positive earnings adjustments.
  • 30% chance of decline towards $6.00 due to macroeconomic pressures.




Trading Oracle: Initiate a bull call spread on ACRE using the 01/17/2025 7.50 C and 10.00 C, anticipating a moderate rebound. Given the 14% yield, this strategy targets upside potential while maintaining risk control. Consider the high volume in long-dated options for optimal positioning.



December 04, 2024


Ares Commercial Real Estate Forecast

ACRE        Ares Commercial Real Estate











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACRE



USD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USD  ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (0.01)


NRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRP  Natural Resource Partners LP - Unit (0.01)


ZM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZM  Zoom Video Communications (0.01)


MP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MP  MP Materials (-0.01)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACRE



RTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RTX  Raytheon (-0.64)


VIST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIST  Vista Oil & Gas Sab De Cv (-0.64)


GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (-0.65)


CPNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPNG  Coupang (-0.7)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.7)









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