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ACRE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strategic positioning and middle-market real estate focus signal stability. Positive social sentiment and higher call volume suggest investor optimism.

Bearish Case: High borrowing costs and real estate sector volatility pose risks. Consistent price declines and high implied volatility indicate market concern.

Potential Outcomes: 55% stabilization at current levels due to strategic positioning; 20% drop from economic pressures; 25% moderate gain on improved sentiment.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a bull call spread on ACRE (08/15/2025 7.50 C / 10.00 C) leveraging potential moderate rebound. Focus on 6-month horizon to capture volatility with a positive risk-reward. This strategy balances alpha with limited downside exposure.

January 10, 2025

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