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ACRE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strategic positioning and middle-market real estate focus signal stability. Positive social sentiment and higher call volume suggest investor optimism.

Bearish Case: High borrowing costs and real estate sector volatility pose risks. Consistent price declines and high implied volatility indicate market concern.

Potential Outcomes: 55% stabilization at current levels due to strategic positioning; 20% drop from economic pressures; 25% moderate gain on improved sentiment.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a bull call spread on ACRE (08/15/2025 7.50 C / 10.00 C) leveraging potential moderate rebound. Focus on 6-month horizon to capture volatility with a positive risk-reward. This strategy balances alpha with limited downside exposure.

January 10, 2025

Ares Commercial Real Estate Forecast

ACRE Ares Commercial Real Estate

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ACRE

NTLA Intellia Therapeutics (0.82)

AMR Alta Mesa Resources (0.79)

WSC WillScot Mobile Mini (0.77)

SRG Seritage Growth Properties (0.77)

LEA Lear (0.75)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACRE

ACN Accenture (0.01)

UAN CVR Partners (0.02)

OTIS Otis Worldwide (-0.02)

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.02)

TALK Talkspace (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACRE

BBAR BBVA Argentina (-0.73)

ARGT Global X Funds - Global X MSCI Argentina (-0.74)

VIST Vista Oil & Gas Sab De Cv (-0.74)

NOK Nokia (-0.74)

GLD SPDR Gold Shares (-0.76)

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