IMO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong fundamentals, pipeline repair progress, and strong institutional interest. Potential dividend boosts become attractive.


Bearish Case: Environmental concerns, project delays, and high regulatory scrutiny. Potential geopolitical instability could impact operations.


Potential Outcomes: Geopolitical tensions: 30% (disrupt supply, raise prices), Steady market conditions: 50% (supply and demand stable), Regulatory challenges: 20% (cause issues).


Trading Oracle: Enter a short volatility credit spread by selling 1 $70 call and buying 2 $80 calls, expiring in ~49 days. High edge, favorable risk/reward. 79% probability of profit, leverages lower IMOs' relative volatility.


June 30, 2024


Imperial Oil Forecast

IMO      Imperial Oil











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IMO



FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.94)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (0.93)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (0.9)


FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (0.9)


CNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNQ  Canadian Natural Resources (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IMO



BC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BC  Brunswick (-0.0)


MGNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGNI  Magnite (-0.0)


NEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEE  NextEra Energy (-0.0)


LEU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEU  Centrus Energy (0.0)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IMO



FLGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLGT  Fulgent Genetics (-0.86)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.87)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (-0.88)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.89)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.9)





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