ADM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ADM could see upside from strong ethanol demand and sustainability-focused growth. Lower helium implied volatility suggests underpricing of future movements which is bullish.




Bearish Case: Ongoing regulatory and market uncertainty, coupled with backwardation in the term structure, indicate potential downward pressure on ADM. High put volume suggests bearish sentiment.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Positive agricultural demand drives growth: 40% likelihood.
  • Negative regulatory shift impacts ADM: 30% likelihood.
  • Stable price with minor fluctuations: 30% likelihood.




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May 03, 2025


Archer Daniels Midland Forecast

ADM        Archer Daniels Midland











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XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.92)


CVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVE  Cenovus Energy (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ADM



ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (0.01)


STLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STLD  Steel Dynamics (0.01)


APPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPN  Appian (0.02)


CRGY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRGY  Crescent Energy Company - (-0.03)


SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ADM



PPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPL  PPL (-0.86)


COMP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMP  Compass (-0.87)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (-0.88)


CORT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORT  Corcept Therapeutics (-0.9)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.91)









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