ADM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ADM's strategic pivot towards sustainable agriculture and biofuels enhances growth prospects amidst favorable ethanol market conditions and potential regulatory benefits.




Bearish Case: Ongoing scrutiny from unresolved accounting probes, regulatory pressures on commodities, and reduced earnings forecasts threaten ADM's stability.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Stability with mean-reverting tendencies: 50% chance.
  • Regulatory challenges driving down price: 30% chance.
  • Positive earnings surprise boosting stock: 20% chance.




Trading Oracle: Utilize a Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Selling $45.5 ATM put and buying $42.5 OOTM put takes advantage of expected flat volatility and mean-reversion trends from price action and option statistics. Probability indicates high profit potential with reduced risk from earnings!



March 05, 2025


Archer Daniels Midland Forecast

ADM        Archer Daniels Midland











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