ADM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ADM's strategic moves in sustainable agriculture and biofuels offer growth opportunities, buoyed by stability in global grain markets and ADM's robust positioning.




Bearish Case: Supply chain disruptions and elevated implied volatility signal potential downward pressure, compounded by ongoing regulatory and geopolitical challenges.




Potential Outcomes: ADM responds to positive ethanol demand (40%). Supply chain impacts drive negative growth (30%). Regulatory changes affect stability (30%).




Trading Oracle: Utilize a Bearish Short Volatility strategy. This strategy leverages heightened implied volatility and recent price declines. Sell ATM calls and buy OTM calls to capitalize on market uncertainty and potential price stagnation.



April 06, 2025


Archer Daniels Midland Forecast

ADM        Archer Daniels Midland











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