SCHD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SCHD's strong historical return profile and low implied volatility indicate stable growth. Favorable market sentiment and a diversified high-quality dividend portfolio support continued bullish momentum.


Bearish Case: High market implied volatility suggests potential downsides. Recent flat price action combined with diminishing institutional interest indicates possible stagnation or pullback risk in the near term.


Potential Outcomes:

1. SCHD rallies by 3% over the next month (40%).

2. SCHD continues flat (~0%) (35%).

3. SCHD falls by 2-4% in the near term (25%). Analysis incorporates recent trading volume, market sentiment, and historical patterns.


Trading Oracle: Given the low implied volatility, open a bullish debit spread. Buy Aug 78.0 Call and sell Aug 80.0 Call, expiring in 50 days. High reward-to-risk ratio, favorable edge, and higher likelihood of profit leverage current conditions for optimal yield.


June 27, 2024


Schwab US Dividend Equity Forecast

SCHD      Schwab US Dividend Equity











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Assets that tend to move strongly with SCHD



IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.98)


MDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MDY  State Street Global Advisors - S&P MidCap 400 (0.98)


IWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWR  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.98)


XLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLI  Industrial Select Sector SPDR (0.97)


VYM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VYM  Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCHD



SVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SVXY  ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (0.0)


FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (0.0)


SMAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMAR  Smartsheet (-0.0)


QID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QID  ProShares UltraShort QQQ (-0.0)


EPAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPAM  EPAM Systems (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCHD



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.95)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.95)


DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOG  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.95)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.96)





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