AFT Forecast


Bullish Case: The AFT's strong historical returns suggest potential upside, especially if interest rates stabilize or fall. High payout ratios can attract income-focused investors, fueling demand.


Bearish Case: Current flat price action, coupled with uncertain economic conditions and upcoming merger impacts, may lead to further price declines. Historical patterns indicate significant downside risk in prolonged holding periods.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Stabilized interest rates (40% chance).

2) Merger synergies lead to 10% price gain (25% chance).

3) Economic downturn causes a 15% drop (30% chance).

4) High payout attracts more investors (5% chance).


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish stance using a call debit spread on AFT, anticipating a price recovery post-merger. Target a 1-month horizon to capture volatility with a favorable risk-reward. Potential for 2:1 payoff if price moves above $15.


July 25, 2024


Apollo Senior Floating Rate Forecast

AFT      Apollo Senior Floating Rate











Correlated Assets

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TEVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEVA  Teva- Pharmaceutical Industries (0.95)


PRIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRIM  Primoris Services (0.92)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.92)


OC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OC  Owens Corning (0.92)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AFT



FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.0)


BSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSY  Bentley Systems (0.01)


MGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGM  MGM Resorts International (0.01)


WTRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WTRG  Essential Utilities (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AFT



VRSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRSN  Verisign (-0.88)


MEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MEI  Methode Electronics (-0.89)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.9)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.9)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.9)





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