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UVXY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: A spike in geopolitical tensions or unexpected market shocks could dramatically increase UVXY, leveraging its structure to capitalize on rising volatility.



Bearish Case: Flattening term structures and high implied volatility coupled with contango continue exerting downwards pressure, as historical data suggests mean reversion towards lower prices.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Stability leads to UVXY decline (60%).

2. Minor volatility spikes from unforeseen events (20%).

3. Significant geopolitical or financial shock spikes volatility (10%).

4. Unexpected policy changes stabilize (10%).



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March 30, 2025


ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures Forecast

UVXY        ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UVXY


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.53)


QSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QSR  Restaurant Brands International (0.52)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (0.52)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (0.52)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.5)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UVXY


CWEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWEN  Clearway Energy (0.0)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (-0.0)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (0.01)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.01)


HES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HES  Hess (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UVXY


DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFS  Discover Financial Services (-0.71)


WEBL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WEBL  Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bull 3X Shares (-0.74)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (-0.74)


FLEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLEX  Flex (-0.75)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (-0.79)







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