AGM Forecast


Bullish Case: AGM's historical mean-reversion tendencies (60%) and recent positive price trends support further growth. High recent returns suggest potential for continued bullish momentum.


Bearish Case: Elevated put option trading volume and high implied volatility at lower strikes indicate downside risk. Historical price fluctuations show probability of near-term corrections.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion rally (55%) as indicated by historical mean-reversion and positive trends.

2. Continued decline (35%) due to bearish volume/volatility.

3. Sideways movement (10%) amid mixed signals and neutral forecast.


Trading Oracle: Sell put credit spreads at strikes near $200 expiring in 1-3 months. High IV in this range and mean-reverting nature provide favorable risk/reward. This strategy captures premium efficiently by leveraging high volatility and expected price stabilization.


July 18, 2024


Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. Forecast

AGM      Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AGM



BLDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLDR  Builders Firstsource (0.9)


KEY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KEY  Keycorp (0.89)


BAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAM  Brookfield Asset (0.89)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.88)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGM



KLIC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KLIC  Kulicke & Soffa Industries (0.0)


RUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RUN  Sunrun (-0.0)


MNKD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNKD  Mannkind (-0.0)


BYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYD  Boyd Gaming (0.0)


IYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IYT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Transportation (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGM



TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.77)


BOIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOIL  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.78)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.79)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.79)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.8)


AGM News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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