BLDR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BLDR may rebound driven by increasing institutional investments and potential recovery in the construction sector. The relatively high implied volatility suggests heightened trading activity and positive sentiment ahead of upcoming earnings.


Bearish Case: BLDR faces risks from declining sales and housing market challenges, with recent insider selling adding to negative sentiment. The backwardation in implied volatility indicates less confidence in short-term price increases.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued earnings growth (40% chance);

2) Further decline in net sales due to housing market pressures (30% chance);

3) Market recovery impacting BLDR positively (20% chance);

4) Increased acquisitions driving growth (10% chance).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bull call spread by buying the August 2024 $160 call and selling the August $180 call. This strategy optimizes for volatility and limits risk while capitalizing on potential price recovery in the next quarter.


July 25, 2024


Builders Firstsource Forecast

BLDR      Builders Firstsource











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.36)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BLDR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.63)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BLDR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.36)





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