AGRO Forecast


Bullish Case: The pricing return surface shows higher likelihood clustering around positive returns for holding periods over a year. Strategic investments and partnerships, coupled with AGRO's diversified agri-business model, provide potential for steady growth.


Bearish Case: Given the current price action and recent downward trend, coupled with a neutral AI price forecast, AGRO faces headwinds that might continue to push the price lower. Market uncertainties and potential regulatory impacts also pose risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion (-0.1%, 55%): Recent historical price shows reverting patterns.

2. Strategic investments trigger upside (+20%, 30%): Investor confidence can boost price.

3. Regulatory and environmental risks (-15%, 15%): Potential adverse effects.


Trading Oracle: Sell a short-term credit spread (Helium Short Volatility) on AGRO ($10-$12.5C expiring 12/20/2024). High volatility and historical mean reversion patterns suggest this approach. Consider holding through regulatory reviews and utilizing protective puts to hedge.


July 18, 2024


Adecoagro Forecast

AGRO      Adecoagro











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