ALSN Forecast


Bullish Case: A bullish outlook for ALSN is supported by improving fundamentals, stable demand for their products, and an upcoming favorable earnings report, suggesting solid revenue growth. Additionally, higher implied volatility from the Term Structure indicates increased expectations for price movement.


Bearish Case: The bearish perspective considers the prevailing high price-to-book ratio (6.2) and low trading volume (5th percentile), signaling potential overvaluation. Labor disputes could also negatively impact operational efficiency and investor sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of price appreciation driven by strong earnings.

2. 30% chance of a minor pullback due to valuation concerns.

3. 20% chance of a significant downturn from labor unrest.

4. 10% chance of major upward movement from strategic partnerships or product launches.


Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a long call spread by purchasing the ALSN 85.00 call for August expiry and selling the 90.00 call. This strategy leverages bullish sentiment and can provide a high reward-to-risk ratio, targeting a modest price increase while minimizing exposure to volatility.


July 24, 2024


Allison Transmission Forecast

ALSN      Allison Transmission











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ALSN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.54)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALSN



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.54)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALSN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.54)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)





Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with ALSN


 Ask any question about ALSN!